Entry80.4→Now81.25
Treasuries as recession hedge, not tactical Open original source
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Top Calls
Entry80.63→Now81.25
Treasury buybacks may lift long bonds. Open original source
Entry80.66→Now81.25
Fed hike may lower Treasury yields. Open original source
Entry80.69→Now81.25
Long bonds as yields fall Open original source
Entry80.69→Now81.25
Rates and long-end yields should fall. Open original source
Entry80.72→Now81.25
10Y yields fall, long bonds up Open original source
Entry80.72→Now81.25
Treasury yields are historically attractive; extend duration. Open original source
Entry80.72→Now81.25
Extend duration a little in bonds. Open original source
Entry80.72→Now81.25
Contrarian bond buy as yields peak. Open original source
Entry80.73→Now81.25
Buy duration as yields back up. Open original source
Entry80.75→Now81.25
Adding duration on balanced bond risk Open original source
Entry80.75→Now81.25
Stablecoins create structural Treasury demand. Open original source
Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
Feed
00:30
Sep 19
Sep 19
Wall Street ended a volatile week quietly as benchmark US Treasury yields topped 5 percent.
Wall Street ended a volatile week quietly as benchmark US Treasury yields topped 5 percent while crude prices reversed earlier gains but stayed above 100 dollars per barrel, keeping inflation worries in focus.
19:30
Sep 18
Sep 18
Watch long-end bonds/TLT as Gromen reiterates his thesis that yields rise during crises (2026.
Watch long-end bonds/TLT as Gromen reiterates his thesis that yields rise during crises (2026 Iran war, 2025 Liberation Day, 3Q23, 1Q23 SIVB, 3Q22 Gilt crisis). No explicit position disclosed; treat as macro read-through, not a bond short.
MED
19:11
Sep 18
Sep 18
Luke Gromen argues that stocks falling hard has repeatedly coincided with rising long-term.
Luke Gromen argues that stocks falling hard has repeatedly coincided with rising long-term Treasury yields, and while he expects bonds to sell off as part of his end-game thesis, he explicitly says he is not shorting bonds as a short-term trade.
LOW
18:43
Sep 18
Sep 18
Luke Gromen argues that long gold has vastly outperformed shorting bonds over the past year.
Luke Gromen argues that long gold has vastly outperformed shorting bonds over the past year and on a 2y, 5y, and 10y basis, defending his preference for gold as the better expression of his thesis.
LOW
18:33
Sep 18
Sep 18
Luke Gromen argues that shorting bonds is a suboptimal way to express a bearish bond view.
Luke Gromen argues that shorting bonds is a suboptimal way to express a bearish bond view because the real problem lies with the currency, implying a cautious stance on bonds without stating a position.
LOW
16:44
Sep 18
Sep 18
Short TLT versus gold into cycle end
Short TLT versus gold as the author expects demographic and fiscal pressure to continue driving TLT toward zero relative to gold by cycle end.
MED
16:00
Sep 18
Sep 18
Rising yields hurt long bonds.
Bond returns are driven by starting yield minus duration times yield changes; rising yields caused losses from 1940 to 1980 and falling yields created gains from 1980 to 2022, but since yields have risen above 5% in recent years, long-bond returns have been poor, with expected inflation the key driver.
MED
15:56
Sep 18
Sep 18
Luke Gromen argues that with interest, entitlements.
Luke Gromen argues that with interest, entitlements, and VA spending already exceeding 100% of federal receipts, nobody should buy bonds after Warsh added $50B to the deficit, a bearish macro view on Treasuries without an explicit short position.
LOW
15:25
Sep 18
Sep 18
Mohamed El-Erian notes that US 10-year Treasury yields are back at 5% and 30-year yields exceed.
Mohamed El-Erian notes that US 10-year Treasury yields are back at 5% and 30-year yields exceed 5.30%, a bearish development for bond prices that pressures long-duration fixed income and equity valuations.
LOW
14:15
Sep 18
Sep 18
Bloomberg reports that despite widespread anxiety in the world's largest bond market.
Bloomberg reports that despite widespread anxiety in the world's largest bond market, some investors see compelling income-driven reasons to buy.
13:15
Sep 18
Sep 18
Bloomberg reports that despite widespread anxiety in the world's largest bond market.
Bloomberg reports that despite widespread anxiety in the world's largest bond market, some investors see compelling income-driven reasons to buy.
12:19
Sep 18
Sep 18
Cramer blames oil for bond weakness
Cramer notes bonds are selling off and attributes the move to oil, but offers no personal directional commitment, no actionable level, and no explicit bond ETF ticker.
LOW
11:00
Sep 18
Sep 18
Juros americanos altos pressionam Treasuries
A curva de juros dos EUA deu um salto em todos os vencimentos, com o 30 anos perto de 5,40% e o 10 anos rondando 5%, sinalizando problemas de inflação, aquecimento econômico, riscos fiscais e geopolíticos. Além disso, os hyperscalers estão captando dívida para financiar data centers e competindo com o Tesouro americano por capital, o que mantém pressão sobre os Treasuries.
MED
07:41
Sep 18
Sep 18
TLT bottomed, recession could spark 10-50% rally
The author asserts the bottom in TLT is in and that the bond ETF can now easily pop 10% or even 50% if the economy enters a recession. The mechanism is a recession-driven flight to long-duration Treasuries, with the recession scenario as the catalyst. No explicit timeframe or risk is stated beyond the recession conditionality.
HIGH
05:58
Sep 18
Sep 18
Fixed income carry remains attractive.
He advocates fixed income generally, emphasizing the power of carry; the October 2023 example, when the U.S. 10-year peaked at 4.9% and subsequently delivered a 15% total return, shows income investors may be overlooking the opportunity even if Treasury yields rise toward 5.5%.
MED
05:23
Sep 18
Sep 18
Avoid long-term bonds before BOJ
Global bond yields have risen almost everywhere except China as hedge funds unwind yen carry trades. A more hawkish BOJ would strengthen the yen and accelerate the unwind, making global bonds and especially long-term bonds vulnerable; he would not buy long-term bonds right ahead of the BOJ decision.
HIGH
03:03
Sep 18
Sep 18
Pension demand loss pressures 30-year Treasuries.
Pension funds were historically the natural buyers of long-duration bonds because they only needed a guaranteed yield, but pensions are dying and the remaining large pensions are using capital for speculative private assets such as SpaceX. That weakens structural demand for 30-year Treasuries and helps explain why bond yields are going parabolic.
MED
01:22
Sep 18
Sep 18
Treasuries attractive at 5% yields.
With US Treasury yields around 5%, short-term bond products offer 4.9% and well-timed longer bonds can yield 6-7%, making Treasuries attractive while high-grade corporate issuance must compete with high risk-free rates.
MED
23:43
Sep 17
Sep 17
Higher yields driven by elevated oil.
iCapital raised its 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.5%-5.3% for the rest of the year. He expects elevated oil prices due to the war to pressure the Fed and push rates higher, with the path within that range completely driven by oil and Trump comments.
HIGH
23:30
Sep 17
Sep 17
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the next US downturn could trigger a debt crisis.
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the next US downturn could trigger a debt crisis that pushes long-term Treasury yields higher, defying the conventional wisdom that bonds act as a safe haven.
23:00
Sep 17
Sep 17
Fed credibility supports long-term Treasury bonds.
The Fed's hawkish hike and Kevin Warsh's credibility restored confidence that inflation will be fought, which is the key to stabilizing long-term Treasury yields. The market had already priced much of the inflation and oil risk, and the Fed's decision bought time; if war or oil risks ease, long-term yields can fall further.
HIGH
22:01
Sep 17
Sep 17
Favor commodities, avoid fixed income
A new secular regime resembles the 1960s-1990s, with higher inflation volatility and bond yields driven more by inflation than growth, weakening the diversification benefit of bonds. She is neutral equities, less favorable on fixed income, and more favorable toward commodities.
HIGH
20:29
Sep 17
Sep 17
Treasury yields retreat from danger zone
A day-after-Fed rethink and lower oil allowed a bond rally, bringing 10-year Treasury yields back out of the danger zone above 5%, which improves the setup for Treasuries.
MED
20:13
Sep 17
Sep 17
US Treasury and corporate debt issuance hit a record 7.70 trillion dollars over the last 12.
US Treasury and corporate debt issuance hit a record 7.70 trillion dollars over the last 12 months, with AI-related firms driving a surge in bond issuance that is pushing long-term yields higher.
20:13
Sep 17
Sep 17
TLT at major resistance, limited upside
The author argues the entire rally today was driven by long bonds rallying over 1%, but TLT is now into major resistance. To move meaningfully beyond current levels, TLT would have to fight through that resistance and two moving averages, suggesting limited near-term upside.
HIGH
19:54
Sep 17
Sep 17
Trust deficit drives long-term Treasury yields higher
Fiscal recklessness (6% deficit without war or recession) and damaged Fed credibility are raising the term premium investors demand to hold US dollars and long-term Treasuries. This is a trust problem rather than an inflation problem, and all rates are rising as a result.
HIGH
19:50
Sep 17
Sep 17
BOJ hikes may spur UST selling.
As the Bank of Japan raises rates, Japanese investors will bring cash home to buy domestic securities, likely selling U.S. Treasuries; this creates a flow headwind for USTs even if currency relative value remains near status quo.
MED
19:50
Sep 17
Sep 17
Front end for yield, long end protection.
With the curve flattened, front-end Treasuries offer pure yield for conservative investors, while stepping out on the curve provides protection against equity and credit drawdowns; tightening at the front end may also help 10- and 30-year yields find a ceiling, though the ultimate high in yields is uncertain.
HIGH
18:58
Sep 17
Sep 17
Wait for 5% 10-year yield
He would not buy long-term bonds just before the Bank of Japan decision, but after seeing the BOJ outcome, a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury should turn out to be a very good return over 6-12 months. For now, he prefers to sit on the fence near 5%.
MED
17:55
Sep 17
Sep 17
Fiscal recklessness raises long-duration Treasury yields.
The rise in long-term Treasury yields is not being driven by inflation—10-year TIPS breakevens near 234 show inflation is not the market's main worry. Instead, a 6% fiscal deficit with no war or recession is eroding trust in US fiscal credibility, raising the term premium and the rate investors demand to hold dollars and long-duration Treasuries.
HIGH
About TLT Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) across 166 sources: 645 bullish vs 423 bearish calls from 921 authors. Historical directional balance: 7% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 3399 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 62 bullish, 29 bearish, 168 other directions. Latest voices: Reuters Business, Luke Gromen, Roger Ibbotson.